91L had warm sea surface temperatures of 28 degrees Celsius (82☏), with light wind shear of 5-10 knots favorable for development. EDT Wednesday, the disturbance, designated 91L by the National Hurricane Center, was headed west-northwest to northwest at 5-10 mph. (Image credit: University of Wisconsin SSEC) 91L in the central Atlantic struggling with dry airĪ tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Lesser Antilles could organize into a tropical depression later this week, but it continues to struggle with dry air. EDT August 31, 2022, showing the dry air of the SAL (orange colors), and three disturbances being tracked by the National Hurricane Center (91L, 93L, and a tropical wave near the coast of Africa being given 5-day odds of development of 50%). Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis for 8 a.m. Hinnanmor at that point would be large and associated with a broad field of typhoon-force winds, making it capable of driving an unusually large storm surge. Sea surface temperatures are unusually warm throughout the far northwest Pacific – about 30-31 degrees Celsius (86-88 degrees Fahrenheit) east of central China, which is as much as 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average – providing unusually strong support for any typhoon passing through the area. Hinnamnor could become a dangerous landfalling major typhoon early next week, but it is too early to pin down the location most at risk. KIyhXzCZAA- Jonathan Erdman August 31, 2022 Potential for long, moist fetch to intercept a stalled front near Korea Pen. Many more chapters to #Hinnamnor ahead, including… Reintensification should occur at that time, when the typhoon finally leaves behind the pool of cool upwelled water. ![]() Wind shear is also expected to rise, with the result that Hinnamnor may be reduced to category 2 or 3 strength when it begins an expected northerly track between China and Japan on Saturday. The typhoon’s very slow motion will allow it to upwell a considerable amount of cool water near the storm’s core, which should weaken it. ![]() As a result, Hinnamnor is expected to slow down and stall Thursday and Friday. Hinnamnor is less than 500 miles to the north-northwest of newly-formed Tropical Depression 13, and the two storms are rotating around a common center of motion, a complex interaction known as the Fujiwhara effect. This is also consistent w/ Sitkowski et al (2011) /WQvKJlZGeh- Eric Webb □□ □□ August 31, 2022 The outer eyewall intensified & contracted to ~2x the size of the original eyewall at the onset of the eyewall replacement cycle (~ 20 mi.). We can now see on radar that #Hinnamnor’s eyewall replacement cycle is nearly complete. Media requests for Jeff Masters and Bob Henson.
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